Could a change in Brazil’s political direction weaken BRICS? To answer this, it is more important to look at decisions on trade and joint projects than at who wins the election.
What Matters for the Next Stage
If the election requires a second round, the prospects will be determined not only by the leaders’ results, but also by the support of eliminated candidates, turnout, and the ability to attract voters beyond one’s core base.
BRICS: Not an Alliance with Common Discipline
This perspective is based on understanding BRICS not as a single political bloc, but as a platform for agreements among independent states.
In this interpretation, the purpose of the association is to reach agreements despite differences and seek mutually beneficial trade. As rules governing the movement of goods become stricter, its importance may increase. Economic ties, in turn, can support cultural exchange, but do not guarantee it.
Where the Limitations Arise
The distances between many participants, logistics costs, and differences in the structure of supply make it difficult to expand mutual trade. Shared political intentions do not necessarily mean that sellers and buyers will find advantageous terms.
Could a Change of Direction Weaken BRICS?
The victory of one politician, by itself, does not mean the association will break up. If foreign policy changes, the risk should be sought in specific decisions: reducing Brazil’s participation in joint initiatives, abandoning agreements, or showing less willingness to coordinate positions.
It is therefore more accurate to speak of a possible weakening of cooperation rather than the inevitable destruction of BRICS. The main question is how much the political direction will change the practical benefits of trade for Brazil and its partners.
If Lula loses, the likelihood of a decline in interest in strengthening Brazil’s relations with the BRICS countries approaches 100 %.
